Accuracy Methodology
Transparent, verifiable, and auditable. Here's exactly how we calculate our performance metrics.
Learn more: Methodology · Accuracy · Disclaimer · FAQ
Our Evaluation Process
Every prediction is tracked, evaluated, and scored using real market data. No simulations, no backtesting bias - just honest performance measurement.
Data Sources
- • DailyClose table with verified closing prices
- • Real-time market data integration
- • Historical price validation
- • Quality scoring for data reliability
Timeframes
- • 1 Day: Short-term accuracy
- • 7 Days: Weekly performance
- • 31 Days: Monthly tracking
- • 3 Months: Quarterly analysis
- • 6 Months: Semi-annual review
- • 1 Year: Annual performance
Signal Definitions
- • BUY/STRONG BUY: Correct if price goes up
- • SELL/STRONG SELL: Correct if price goes down
- • HOLD: Correct if |return| is within the horizon band (default ±3%; 1-day ±2%, 31-day ±4%)
- • Public headline metric: All signals, 1-day horizon; Advanced/consensus subset shown separately
Live Accuracy Metrics
Technical Implementation
How We Calculate Accuracy
Price Lookup
Query DailyClose table for actual closing price at target date
Return Calculation
Calculate percentage return: ((target_price - base_price) / base_price) × 100
Correctness Check
Apply signal-specific logic to determine if prediction was correct
Quality Scoring
Assign quality score based on data source reliability
Data Quality Standards
Data from DailyClose table with confirmed market prices
Fallback data from Prediction table when DailyClose unavailable
No price data available for evaluation
Compliance & Disclaimers
Methodology · Full disclaimer · FAQ
Investment Disclaimer
Past performance does not guarantee future results. All predictions and accuracy metrics are based on historical data and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading involves risk, and you may lose money. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor.
Data Accuracy
While we strive for accuracy in our calculations, market data can have delays, errors, or gaps. Our evaluation system uses the best available data at the time of calculation, but we cannot guarantee 100% accuracy of underlying market data.
Regulatory Compliance
Hound Trader is not a registered investment advisor (RIA) or broker-dealer. We provide analysis tools and educational content only. All trading decisions are your own responsibility.
Questions About Our Methodology?
We believe in complete transparency. If you have questions about our calculations or want to verify our data, we're here to help.